ELCA scientists and doctors urge swift action
We present two ELCA doctors who share very important messages of sobering reality as well as hope. Scroll down to read both messages in full.
Dr. Karen Kibler attends Holy Trinity Lutheran in Chandler, AZ, and is working on a coronavirus vaccine in her role as professor at ASU. She says,“I believe that if Christ were here today, he would preach from a distance, minister to groups of only two or three, and find ways to provide basic needs to those who cannot seek them on their own.” View Dr. Kibler’s full interview in this post or view a PDF.
Dr. Erica C. Bjornstad of the Southeastern Synod is an epidemiologist with extensive experience in disaster relief settings. Her letter to ELCA leaders urges swift action, including: cancelling gatherings, planning for remote funerals, weddings, and baptisms; and planning for how to function when pastors become ill or die. View Dr. Bjornstad’s letter in this post, or view a PDF, and her YouTube video.
An Interview with Dr. Karen Kibler
As a Christian who is Lutheran, how do you live with these realities and yet remain hopeful?
This is a difficult time for all of us. I was thinking how our parents and grandparents used social distancing long before the phrase was heard. They didn’t have antibiotics, so if someone in the household contracted scarlet fever, for instance, everyone in the house stayed there in isolation. They knew intuitively to separate themselves to protect their neighbors.
I understand and can personally relate to the very strong spiritual need at times to be physically within the walls of the church sanctuary, because that is truly my “sanctuary.” However, I keep coming back to one of Christ’s most loving teachings: care for your neighbor. I believe that it is my personal responsibility to care for my neighbor by avoiding my neighbor – not in the sense of not providing basic needs, but in the sense of protecting my neighbor in case that I am infected with the coronavirus right now and spreading it. I’m healthy and can most likely recover easily if infected, but if I spread it to someone at risk, that person may not survive. My hope is based in knowing that we can take action to lessen the number of lives impacted by the pandemic.
I believe that if Christ were here today, he would preach from a distance, minister to groups of only two or three, and find ways to provide basic needs to those who cannot seek them on their own.
Our faith doesn’t sustain us only during normal times, but perhaps more obviously in challenging times. God has provided us with experts and with a network of caring; that is the source of my hope.
How contagious is COVID-19?
The virus is more contagious than seasonal flu, including the H1N1 “swine flu” of 2009, but less so than measles.
Who is at risk?
Those who are over 60, and probably each decade above it adds to the risk in general; people with underlying health conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, or chronic lung diseases; all those who are immune compromised, such as those undergoing chemotherapy, who have had an organ transplant, who are HIV positive, or who have an immune deficiency of some kind.
How do we stay safe?
The most important step is to avoid those who are ill. The virus transmits very easily, and even people who don’t appear to be seriously ill can transmit the virus. That’s why social distancing is so important.
When an infected person sneezes or coughs, droplets of moisture enter the air around the person, and the droplets contain virus. Coming in contact with those droplets in the air, and inhaling them, is the primary route of transmission. Touching surfaces where the droplets have fallen, and then touching our nose or mouth (and possibly eyes), allows the virus to then infect our own mucous membranes. So using disinfecting wipes on surfaces commonly touched by multiple people, using hand sanitizer, and washing our hands as frequently as possible all help us to stay safe.
What is social distancing and what does flattening do?
Social distancing is the measure we all need to take to break the spread of the virus. If the virus has no new person to infect, it will eventually die out. “Flattening” refers to the peak of cases that would appear on a graph.
If the line on a graph is tracking the number of cases every Monday, for example, and the line remains within a range of 40-100 over months, the line is pretty “flat.” If, however, the number of cases suddenly spikes to 1000, the line will curve sharply upward. When those high peaks take place, health care is overwhelmed.
We don’t have enough surplus beds in hospitals on normal days (without a pandemic), so when an emergency situation arises such as this one, there simply are not enough resources to adequately care for those who are critically ill. Social distancing can help us get ahead of the spread of the virus, and keep that graph line flat. This is really the only tool we have to fight the virus.
How long do you believe this pandemic will last?
I wish I had a good answer for this question. A few months ago, I was still hopeful that the virus could be contained and we could avoid a pandemic. That was not the case, and now the length of the outbreak is in our hands: if we are successful with social distancing, the graph line will stay flat and the virus will have no new host to infect; if we are not successful, the pandemic will still end, but will most likely last longer and take more lives.
If I had to guess, I would say that the estimates of 4-6 months are probably the closest to reality (but I’m not an expert on this). Whatever the time it takes, we really only have two options: do what is in our power to get ahead of the spread of the virus or do nothing. We are a strong people and we will take action.
Where is the most reliable source to get up to date information?
The best source of reliable information is cdc.gov. The people at the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) are the ones who have boots on the ground. These scientists and physicians travel around the world to help end disease outbreaks. Their facilities for working with viruses and other pathogens are designed to support quick and accurate response to emerging as well as common disease risks. Their website will not include anything that is outside the facts.
How long does the virus stay alive in the air and in the air?
The reports on this vary, but one from the National Institutes of Health has found that the droplets containing virus can remain in the air for 2-3 hours; on surfaces such as plastic and metal, the virus remains infectious for up to 3 days.
What should we do if we think we have it?
Call your doctor and describe your symptoms. Your physician can advise you of next steps and at what point you should be tested.
How does this compare to the flu?
As mentioned earlier, the coronavirus spreads more efficiently than does the flu virus; the coronavirus has a much higher mortality rate than does the flu (4-6% compared to 0.1%); none of us has any immunity to this strain of coronavirus because it has never circulated among humans in the past. This combination is why a pandemic has developed: this novel virus spreads very rapidly, it causes serious disease in those at high risk, and we have no prior immunity.
How far along are we in finding a vaccine or a cure?
There are groups all over the world racing to find a vaccine. Treatments for viruses are difficult, because unlike bacteria, a virus has to live inside our own cells. To kill the virus, we often have to kill our cells. So the treatments are often harsh, or just not effective. That doesn’t mean there won’t be one available (in fact, there are several being developed that are very promising), but it will require a lot of screening to find one that is safe and effective for the patient. Vaccines are the best hope, and will probably take six to eighteen months to be available. Just to build the vaccine requires a few months, and then it has to be tested for safety before we can risk trying it on people. Then it has to be produced in large volumes to provide enough vaccine doses. The time required will depend on identifying what protein in the virus is most likely to produce a strong and effective response from our immune systems, and then finding an efficient means to introduce that protein to our immune system.
Will taking vitamins help build up immunity?
Some vitamins help with immunity, but you should always check with your doctor or pharmacist before adding new vitamins to your routine. Some vitamins are harmful if taken in high doses, so seek advice to be safe.
Can I catch it from dogs?
This is highly unlikely. I believe that the original advice to seclude yourself away from pets was to protect your pets. Dogs do get infected by a coronavirus known to us as “kennel cough.” But there is no evidence that this new coronavirus strain can infect dogs, or cats for that matter. Experts have also said we can’t rule out the possibility.
Letter to ELCA leaders from Dr. Erica C. Bjornstad
View as PDF, watch YouTube video.
19 March 2020
Dear ELCA Leaders,
We are in the midst of a generation defining event. The ELCA should not underestimate its ability to lead and change the course of coming events. What we do now may very well save lives and will shape the ELCA and the whole Church for decades to come. I write this to urge you to take swift action and to prepare churches in your care more fully for the new reality that is emerging in the United States due to COVID-19. I am a pediatrician, epidemiologist with training in disaster relief and humanitarian assistance. I have also worked for 20 years in variety of capacities in low-resourced settings, which is what we may soon be facing in the U.S. I am also a Christian and a member of an ELCA church. I do not make these recommendations lightly.
I want to give you the data that has made me come to this conclusion:
According to the CDC data, within 2 days the U.S. has doubled the number of cases of COVID-19 to >7,000. If this continues we will have >30,000 by Sunday March 22, 2020.
10-30% of people who are infected require hospitalizations in Italy and China.
If rates of cases double in the U.S. every 4 days, based on CDC numbers from Friday March 13, the US may very well be out of ICU beds by the end of April and out of hospital beds by the end of May.
Italian hospitals started crumbling due to this surge when they hit 20,000 cases.
We are starting to see the impact. CDC has provided guidance that due to protective equipment shortage nurses should use bandanas and scarves if they do not have access to face masks.
CDC data now indicate that 12% infected in the U.S. are hospitalized and 55% of those are 20-65 year olds.
There is report of a family in NJ who has had 3 family members die within the span of 1 week.
There are states/places that are not taking strong measures and bars/restaurants remain open. St. Patrick’s Day parties continue in the New Orleans area.
I urge you to watch this video of the situation as of March 16, 2020. (Scroll down to see video)
I will be making an updated video by this weekend but I fear that may be too late to make enough impact. These are unprecedented times and call for unprecedented measures. We are in the beginning days of an event that will be remembered in history books for centuries to come. What happens next determines how that story is told. I urge the ELCA to make the following stances and preparations:
Cancel all worship services through the end of April.
Plan for remote funerals, weddings, baptisms to occur for the next 3-6 months.
Plan for how churches will function and support one another when pastors become ill, or worse die due to the higher mortality rates in older populations.
The strong stance of the church can save lives. How lucky are we that we have the technology to continue remote e-worshipping. I am available to discuss my thoughts and ideas at any time.
Sincerely,
Erica C. Bjornstad, MD, PhD, MPH
Birmingham, AL
443-717-0065
ericaecuador@yahoo.com