“We're thinking about Covid-19 the wrong way. It's not a 'wave' – it's a wildfire. Like a fire, the virus relentlessly seeks out its fuel, humans, and will keep spreading as long as it has access to that,” write Michael T Osterholm and Mark Olshaker in a concise letter in The Guardian.

We have no previous experience with a worldwide coronavirus pandemic, so when Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, began spreading, public health experts leaned on our experiences with influenza pandemics to inform their predictions. These pandemics are often described in terms of “waves” and “troughs”. We have now seen enough to replace the ocean analogy with a better one: wildfire.

Like a wildfire, the virus relentlessly seeks out fuel (human hosts), devastating some areas while sparing others. It will continue spreading until we achieve sufficient herd immunity – when 50 to 70% of the population has developed protective antibodies – to significantly slow transmission. Read more »